So I finally broke down and got an account to start writing here, after reading for a bit. I don’t really know why it was NOW, exactly, but here I am.
As a Coloradan, I have been surprised at the lack of serious discussion from the Obama Administration about appointing a Centennial stater to his Cabinet. After initial speculation about Ken Salazar for Interior Secretary diminished, I thought that we would be shut out of the Cabinet this administration (not that this is inherently bad, but hey, a little state pride is alright).
Recently though, chatter here in the West has surrounded John Salazar, Ken’s brother and a Representative for Colorado’s 3rd district, as a possible appointment for Secretary of Agriculture. This could accomplish several things: a second (or third, if you could Grijalva at Interior) appointment for a prominent Hispanic politician, a Westerner and Coloradan at Agriculture, and put an actual farmer as the head of the Agriculture Dept. for the first time in decades.
This diary isn’t about the merits of Salazar’s possible appointment, though, but about who might replace him in the House if it were to happen.
CD-3 is a somewhat conservative-leaning district in Colorado: it covers 29 counties, most of them rural, and takes in the Democratic strongholds of Pueblo and Durango as well as the Republican super-stronghold of Mesa County, where Grand Junction is. Before John won the district in 2004, it was held by Republican Scott McInnis for 12 years.
Many in Colorado think that only John could hold this seat, and while there are definitely more prominent Republicans than Democrats in this district, a few people would make this a top-tier Congressional race. Here’s a quick rundown of the main contenders from each party…
The Democrats:
Former State Rep. Bernie Beuscher: Bernie was a Democrat elected from the 3rd most Republican House district in the state, HD 54, and was in line to be Speaker of the House in Colorado had he won reelection this year. He didn’t, losing in a shocker to businesswoman and Rep-elect Laura Bradford by 400 votes. He’s currently being considered for our vacant Secretary of State position, but would be the strongest candidate to win this district, hailing from (and winning twice in) its Republican stronghold of Mesa County.
State Rep. Gail Schwartz: Gail hails from the Durango/Gunnison area, and is a leader in the House on rural issues. She’s now the only Democrat in the House representing Colorado’s Western Slope outside of some of the ski towns. She’s also a rancher, which plays well in rural Colorado.
State Sen. Abel Tapia: One of the most incompetent state officials, Tapia is a member of the Joint Budget Committee and hails from Pueblo, the districts major population center of 140,000 (though it’s 200 miles from Grand Junction…this district is about the size of South Carolina). He’s also Hispanic, an important voting bloc in this district.
And the Republicans, who range from the terrible to actually quite good:
Sen. Josh Penry: A rising Republican star, he’s 32 and just elected as Minority Leader of the State Senate. He was a football star at Mesa State in Grand Junction, and hails from Mesa County. He’d have significant support from the conservative establishment, though he just supported a transportation funding initiative that lost by 20 points in the 08 elections.
Rep. Ellen Roberts: The quintessential moderate Colorado Republican, Roberts just lost a race for a House leadership position and could be looking for greener pastures. She is, however, the most liberal Republican in the State House (pro-choice, pro-civil union, and favored several revenue increases not favored by the state party). She’s compelling on the stump, and eminently likable. She’ll win this race if she can get through a primary.
Mayor Gregg Palmer: The Mayor of Grand Junction is very popular, and his pro-business bona fides would serve him well in a primary. He’s close with Penry, however, and would be unlikely to challenge him in a primary. That being said, he’s almost twice Penry’s age, and could be looking to cap off his career somewhere bigger than Grand Junction.
Those are some of the main culprits for this race that hasn’t even materialized yet. I’d give John a 50% chance of getting the Ag. appointment, and if that happens I would bet heavily on a Beuscher v. Penry race, with both national parties getting VERY engaged.
This would likely be an embarassing special eleciton loss for us without Salazar in this seat.
would Tom Buis, Head of the National Farmers Union, a position where he has worked hand in hand with local farming groups across the country in their quest to be heard in Government, giving him unique readiness to be Secretary of Agriculture, as we need someone with insight and experience doing this kind of thing. Before that he was an Agricultural Policy Advisor to Tom Daschle and was an actual grain farmer in Indiana. He’s also not a traditional politician and not really an insider. I think that this would be the smartest and most popular pick he could make, as it would go over very well with midwesterners .
Plus, I don’t want to have defend CO-03. I remember though when Bernie Buescher’s election was in the national news in 2004. I still don’t think Obama came very close to winning this district.
there are better choices for Ag is the main reason, but also this wouldn’t be the easiest seat to hold. I think Beuscher could hold it but I also think he’s likely to be SoS.
AG translated as Attorney General in my mind. I was like Holder’s the Attorney General. Did something happen. Shades of the revolving door Bill Clinton had on a few early nominees. Household taxes or some other crap?
Then I read it and it’s Ag, not A G. Nevermind.
Like Emily Latella on the (very) okd Saturday Night Live.
Hey SSPers, I’m a first time poster here. While I’m a born-and-bred Denverite and, therefore, probably have a skewed view of the Western Slope, I hope I can add something to this. I sincerely hope Rep. Salazar stays where he is. This is an R+6 or 7 district, only two to three points less Republican than CO-04, and only because of Steamboat, Telluride, possibly Silverton-Ouray, a few other mountain towns, and, of course, Pueblo.
Pueblo is so far in the eastern corner of the district, I think it would be difficult, at best, for Tapia to hold the seat. Schwartz might do well, but her name recognition, even for those who follow Colorado politics, is VERY low. I, for one, know the name, but could not connect her to any significant accomplishments. As for Buescher, I’m afraid that was a pretty stinging defeat. If this were two years from now, I’d say he would be an excellent choice, but I’m not sure how he regains his political capital at the moment. One name NOT mentioned who should be is State Sen. Jim Isgar. His is a rural district and one which should be a good launching pad. The same might be said for Buffie McFayden.
As for the Republicans, I think Roberts would be swallowed up in a primary, but I hope she goes for it, because that district is very-barely-R. I suspect Penry is the heir to the throne, and he’d be very tough, if not impossible, to beat. If my own informal conversations are to be believed, he is well-liked even among Mesa County Democrats and moderate liberals. More importantly, I think he’s on the right side of the Colorado Water Compact, unlike Scott Tipton was. As for the demographics of the district, I’d beg to differ on a few things. While Durango is moderate, it isn’t exactly a Democratic stronghold. Montezuma County to the west is even less friendly. The counties that are friendly are pretty small, population-wise, and it would be very hard to stem the Montrose-Delta-Mesa County vote.
The seat is Salazar’s for a long time…though a race against Penry would be very tough, but John better stay put.